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Thread: Cliodynamics

  1. #1
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    Cliodynamics

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cliodynamics

    Human cycles: History as science : Nature News & Comment
    > Human cycles: History as science

    ------------------
    To Peter Turchin, who studies population dynamics at the University of Connecticut in Storrs, the appearance of three peaks of political instability at roughly 50-year intervals is not a coincidence. For the past 15 years, Turchin has been taking the mathematical techniques that once allowed him to track predator–prey cycles in forest ecosystems

    When Turchin refined the concept of cliodynamics with two colleagues — Sergey Nefedov of the Institute of History and Archaeology in Yekaterinburg, Russia, and Andrey Korotayev of the Russian State University for the Humanities in Moscow — the researchers found that two trends dominate the data on political instability. The first, which they call the secular cycle, extends over two to three centuries. It starts with a relatively egalitarian society, in which supply and demand for labour roughly balance out. In time, the population grows, labour supply outstrips demand, elites form and the living standards of the poorest fall. At a certain point, the society becomes top-heavy with elites, who start fighting for power. Political instability ensues and leads to collapse, and the cycle begins again.
    ------------------

    Perhaps we can learn from history and avoid making the same mistakes again and again.

    My take from this information so far is that AI and automation could help avoid the "labour supply outstrips demand" point.

    Does anyone else notice anything we could do different ?
    droneBEE and Blastra like this.

  2. #2
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    Learn from history? You must be joking......

    We're humans....and collectively at least....we tend to forget more often than not, forcing a steady and similar repetition of ignorance....filled with very predictable, well established patterns of behavior....that goes back centuries....

    I've attempted to address these issues, these stupid patterns we insanely endure and place upon ourselves, numerous times in these pages...to little avail and even less discussion.....

    After witnessing some recent posts (along with a 'decreasing' number of TZM supporters coming around) it seems most current posters would rather debate with those who are blind to HOW we got here and WHY we keep returning to the same patterns...or cycles.....

    You all know them....the Nazi lovers.....who invaded this place and chased some of my favorite people away a while back and have stunk it up pretty good......

    If this pattern continues....we may as well 're' name this place and turn it over to them........OR.... we could just ignore them instead.....
    Last edited by droneBEE; 1 Week Ago at 05:20 AM.
    Ernest likes this.

  3. #3
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    > (along with a 'decreasing' number of TZM supporters coming around)

    I was going to say yesterday, did anyone notice the sudden increase in folk here. :-)


    > chased some of my favorite people away a while back

    I don't think it was them that caused that, as I've seen it happen many times before.

    Just a coincidence.

    Though, maybe them showing up, is the reason why more folk are showing up recently. :-)

    As being able to debate about anything, shows we are no longer your typical 1984 organisation that tries to silence anything we disagree with.

    As the saying goes, a wise man can learn from a fool, but a fool cannot learn from a wiseman.

    I have learned much myself from listening to all sides of the argument, more so than if I had just one view of the world, and it has helped me to figure out better solutions.

    What the place needs is a good ignore tool, so none of us have to put up with those that we really cannot bare to listen talk. (Facebook is good for that..)


    We are the guardians of hope, that keep the flame alive.
    Ernest likes this.

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by YouTuber View Post
    > (along with a 'decreasing' number of TZM supporters coming around)

    I was going to say yesterday, did anyone notice the sudden increase in folk here. :-)


    > chased some of my favorite people away a while back

    I don't think it was them that caused that, as I've seen it happen many times before.

    Just a coincidence.

    Though, maybe them showing up, is the reason why more folk are showing up recently. :-)

    As being able to debate about anything, shows we are no longer your typical 1984 organisation that tries to silence anything we disagree with.

    As the saying goes, a wise man can learn from a fool, but a fool cannot learn from a wiseman.

    I have learned much myself from listening to all sides of the argument, more so than if I had just one view of the world, and it has helped me to figure out better solutions.

    What the place needs is a good ignore tool, so none of us have to put up with those that we really cannot bare to listen talk. (Facebook is good for that..)


    We are the guardians of hope, that keep the flame alive.
    You've been here since January 2017, right?.....I can only suggest that you start READING some of the original posts to SEE what we are missing today..(EXPANSIVE MEANINGFUL INTELLIGENCE)..and what this place has become due to those who offer nothing but disruption, division and nonsensical debates over hatred and hating....along with an offensive, narcissistic embracement of White Skin Color Superiority...:roll eyes: ....Those who have elected to base their opines on the words and deeds of past dictators.......

    BTW; the 'ignore' button works just fine.....just have to push it and USE it.....
    Last edited by droneBEE; 1 Week Ago at 04:48 AM. Reason: clarity

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